Delegate counts

[yesthattom]

For those of you that aren't following the primaries too closely... it's all about delegates. There are 4049 delegates in the DNC, so the first candidate that gets 2025 gets the nomination. Most delegates are won by winning the state, though I believe most states (all?) are proportional... each county has a certain number of delegates and if you win that county you win those delegates. That is, someone with 45% of the vote in Connecticut will walk away with about 45% of the delegates. It gets complicated because there are counties with an odd-number of delegates, but that's not all that important right now.

The important thing is that mathematically someone could accrue 2025 delegates today and then the primary is essentially over. The problem is that it is very unlikely.

So what are the scenarios?

A: Hillary accrues 2025+ delegates: (unlikely)

• it's over, she has the nomination.
  

B: Obama accrues at least 1800 delegates: (we're told this is unlikely)

• He has enough "easy win" states that will make him the likely nominee.

C: Obama accrues less than 1800 delegates: (more likely)

• It's going to be an all-out battle for the remaining 225 delegates.  It could get bloody.

Obviously the media is hoping for C, since that will draw out the story for a few more months.  Though A and B would be the more interesting single-day story.

Obama has been telling volunteers that is is going to be "very close", but Dems always tell people that so that they work hard. Otherwise volunteers either give up and don't volunteer (we can't win), or don't show up (we'll win without any work).  In New Jersey there were some famous races that the Dems were set to win, no volunteers showed up, and we lost.

So are we being spun "it's close" to get volunteers to work hard or is it really close?

It doesn't matter.  If they spin it that way and it isn't close, it's a great story: Obama pulls off surprise win and gets the nomination!

If it isn't close, the story continues.

Comments

[arkham1010.livejournal.com]

It could also go the other way too. Hillary supporters feel threatened (*as they should) and come to the polls in record numbers, and Obama supporters stay lazy and stay home. Thats sorta what happened in NH (That and independents felt it was a done deal, and decided to vote in the republican primaries instead).

And Obama gets blown out.

His campaign guy basically said that if he comes within 100 delegates, he considers it a win. If he's behind her by more than 100, its a loss, and a loss depending on the size of the difference.

[djmitche.livejournal.com]

All of the democratic races are proportional, but as you mentioned there are a huge number of superdelegates, too.

[awfief.livejournal.com]

see at this point I think we should take a pres/vp ticket with both of 'em.