If Obama wins, it will be very close
Jun. 16th, 2008 03:13 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
yesthattomWhen Democrats hear that a candidate is going to win, they stop volunteering and donating. Confident of a win, they don’t realize that a predicted win only happens if people keep on working.
When Republicans hear that a candidate is going to lose, they start donating more and volunteers start showing up in droves.
Dems have lost races that they thought they’d win because support dropped out. NJ Governor races have been surprises in both directions because of this factor. Once Dems stopped their GOTV efforts the morning on the election because of this confident. Ugh.
As you can guess, I get nervous every time a report comes out that “the polls look good for Obama”. The truth is that Obama is going to have an uphill battle. Polling data and past experience is all with white candidates. We literally don’t know how entire regions will react. People don’t like to say, “I won’t vote for a black person” to a pollster, and vote differently when they are in the privacy of a voting booth. Southern states with huge black populations could invalidate all “conventional wisdom.” However, what do we know about the effectiveness of GOTV programs in areas that we’ve ignored for decades? If every polling place in black neighborhoods gets 10x the turn-out of previous years, will everyone be able to vote?
Not to sound like a broken record about “Republicans are good at recommending that Democrats do the opposite of what’s good for them” it wouldn’t surprise me at all if all these “Obama is going to win, it’s just a matter of how big” articles are being encouraged by conservatives.
In the meanwhile, let me say this:
When Republicans hear that a candidate is going to lose, they start donating more and volunteers start showing up in droves.
Dems have lost races that they thought they’d win because support dropped out. NJ Governor races have been surprises in both directions because of this factor. Once Dems stopped their GOTV efforts the morning on the election because of this confident. Ugh.
As you can guess, I get nervous every time a report comes out that “the polls look good for Obama”. The truth is that Obama is going to have an uphill battle. Polling data and past experience is all with white candidates. We literally don’t know how entire regions will react. People don’t like to say, “I won’t vote for a black person” to a pollster, and vote differently when they are in the privacy of a voting booth. Southern states with huge black populations could invalidate all “conventional wisdom.” However, what do we know about the effectiveness of GOTV programs in areas that we’ve ignored for decades? If every polling place in black neighborhoods gets 10x the turn-out of previous years, will everyone be able to vote?
Not to sound like a broken record about “Republicans are good at recommending that Democrats do the opposite of what’s good for them” it wouldn’t surprise me at all if all these “Obama is going to win, it’s just a matter of how big” articles are being encouraged by conservatives.
In the meanwhile, let me say this:
- The best way to stop getting requests for donations is to donate the maximum permitted by law. They’ll stop pestering you. Really. donate. $2,300 to Obama, and $28,500 to the DNC. Ha ha. I can’t even donate that much. However, donating what you can is critical.
- Volunteer with your local party. You can be a neighborhood leader, or just stop by to stuff envelopes, or join the group that refutes anti-Obama rumors on blogs
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no subject
Date: 2008-06-17 04:15 pm (UTC)See, I hate that crap. Of course they will pull something. Of course the Democrats will pull something, too. They both ALWAYS do. Both. When I lived in NC, when the (Democrat, Popular, Liberal, Black) Mayor of Charlotte challenged Jesse Helms, the morning of the election, almost every voting booth (the lever type) in Orange, Durham, and Queens counties turned out to be broken. Those were the three most populous left-leaning counties in the state at the time. WHAT A COINCIDENCE.
But, see, I later lived in IL, where the Democrats pulled something almost everywhere. In Chicago, whole districts voted... districts that don't exist. In the collar suburbs, signs for the opposition were methodically removed by road crews while the Democrats' candidates' signs were left everywhere. You have to live both to understand that it's not "those bad other guys" - everyone is bad and it will get worse the more we tolerate it just because it's "our side" and we have "things we need to get done."
What you tolerate, you condone. What you condone, you deserve.
Nothing ever soured me on my party of choice but living in one of its bastions.