Baby Bounce For Bush

[yesthattom]

The newsletter of 21st Century Democrats pointed out http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/000641.php
:

Did you get demoralized when Time and Newsweek announced polls last week showing Bush with a sudden, big lead? Don’t be fooled by the hype. In their rush to make news, the magazines broke every rule for how to measure a convention bounce, including polling during the convention itself -- when fired up Republicans were much more likely to be home and interested in talking to pollsters.

Reliable polls show a small lead lead for Bush nationally and much good news for Kerry in the battleground states. The polls that show a big Bush lead use turnout assumptions that favor Republicans (for example, likely voters = people who voted in 2002, a bad year for Democrats).

For the real story, which shows Bush with the smallest convention bounce ever for an incumbent president, check out this analysis from expert pollster Ruy Teixeira

There are only 54 days left and this race is close close close. Every vote counts and every dollar counts. Please forward this to five of your friends and ask them to support our work turning out the Democratic vote!