If he loses 100% of the south (like Gore did) but gets all the states that Gore got, plus one additional state, he'd have the electorial college. That's how. Nixon had "the southern strategy", this will be the year of "the south-west strategy": the south-west is becoming the new center of the universe for Democrat votes.
One needs to be at least palatable to Southern Whites, because there are plenty of them all over the country, where they comrise swing votes in many imprtant states. They tend to be pro-union, and those who've left the South tend to be less conservative in other areas, as well. But they still distrust Northerners who think they have all the answers. So any candidate who gives off too may Yankee-Cooties is going to have trouble in places like Missouri and Illinois.
Also, probably a majority of Southern ex-pats aren't pro-union, but the sizable minorty that are tend to feel strongly about it. That's the group that any Democrat need to not freak out.
You most definitely can do without them - it's the Republicans who absolutely need to hold the entire south to be able to win. But doing without the south isn't what Dean is about. He's gonna try everywhere, and he can win some southern states. To begin with, it's pathetic that Gore lost West Virginia, which is heavily Democratic, but Dean's rural appeal and his position on guns will get WV back. We can certainly win Florida, though it'll be hard. Hopefully Bob Graham can help there. Louisiana has shown surprising Democratic strength recently, and is exactly the sort of very poor state that Dean can most appeal to - I think we can take Louisiana. We should also be able to get Tennessee. Oh, and Maryland of course, but people don't count that as "the South" anymore. I think we have a chance at Virginia too, but that's more of a long shot. Same goes for Kentucky, a heavily Democratic state with a very large and active Dean grassroots movement, but also a state that seems to love Bush, and votes for president by religion. Of course Florida is once again key. I've looked at the electoral college map and done a variety of combinations, and I really don't see how Bush can win if he doesn't have Florida, unless by some strange fluke Bush gets a landslide and wins several Democratic swing states but not Florida. If Bush wins the entire south including Florida, that makes for a very close race in the rest of the country, with a slight edge to Bush. If Bush wins the entire south minus Florida, he's almost certainly toast.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2004-01-15 02:24 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2004-01-15 07:10 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2004-01-15 07:57 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2004-01-15 08:04 pm (UTC)Also, probably a majority of Southern ex-pats aren't pro-union, but the sizable minorty that are tend to feel strongly about it. That's the group that any Democrat need to not freak out.
no subject
Date: 2004-01-16 02:06 am (UTC)Of course Florida is once again key. I've looked at the electoral college map and done a variety of combinations, and I really don't see how Bush can win if he doesn't have Florida, unless by some strange fluke Bush gets a landslide and wins several Democratic swing states but not Florida. If Bush wins the entire south including Florida, that makes for a very close race in the rest of the country, with a slight edge to Bush. If Bush wins the entire south minus Florida, he's almost certainly toast.