First of all, we were discussing a vaccine, not a cure. A vaccine will probably be administered to orders of magnitude more people than therapies are administered to.
Secondly, you're simply not taking into account that one company can change the market for all the others. Even considering cures: if Pfizer develops a cure, Merck loses most of its market for therapies. (I don't actually know who's in the market, I'm just picking Big Pharma names at random.) If Merck thinks that Pfizer might develop a cure, than Merck would likely do so itself, not to get totally boxed out of the market. The real-world problem is that Merck bosses probably hang out with Pfizer bosses and they all let each other know just how well they're dragging their feet.
Also, though it's a relatively minor point, you need to take into account the discounted value of future money.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2005-12-28 07:40 am (UTC)Secondly, you're simply not taking into account that one company can change the market for all the others. Even considering cures: if Pfizer develops a cure, Merck loses most of its market for therapies. (I don't actually know who's in the market, I'm just picking Big Pharma names at random.) If Merck thinks that Pfizer might develop a cure, than Merck would likely do so itself, not to get totally boxed out of the market. The real-world problem is that Merck bosses probably hang out with Pfizer bosses and they all let each other know just how well they're dragging their feet.
Also, though it's a relatively minor point, you need to take into account the discounted value of future money.